Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
