Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
